Above-average hurricane season forecast with several major hurricanes – CNN

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Of course it’s impossible to know how many of those storms will make landfall along the US coast, or where the largest storms will develop.

However, during the announcement, NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad recognized that the current hurricane cycle for the Atlantic is a busy one.

“If you go back two years, the 2020 hurricane season broke records across the board and it’s the most active season on record with 30 named storms,” said Spinrad.

“The 2021 hurricane season, which is the third most active year on record in terms of names of storms brought us 21 named storms with impacts, ranging from the Appalachian Mountains all the way to New England, resulting in over $78.5 billion in US damage.”

There are several contributing factors that play into a “busy” hurricane season. “We are in an active period,” said Spinrad. “There are certain ingredients that drive the intensity and the frequency of hurricanes.”

One is the existing La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon creates cooler-than-average ocean temperatures around the equator in the Pacific and results in weather impacts around the globe.

La Niña presents favorable conditions for hurricanes — in contrast to that of El Niño.

Hurricane seasons under El Niño conditions are known for upper-level wind patterns across the Caribbean that tear hurricanes apart as they try to form, making the seasons less active.

Another reason for the above-normal forecast is the location of what’s called the “Gulf Loop Current.” This current is “a 600-foot-deep river of hot Caribbean water that travels between Cancun, Mexico and western Cuba into the Gulf,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.

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